Bill de hÓra

Predictions for 2003

January 01, 2003 |  co.mments

30 something predictions for 2003.

1. Java:
   • Developers and architects cease to use stateful and entity EJBs in their designs.
   • JMS and Message Driven Beans get overused.
   • C# and VB.NET continue to gain ground on Java; the JCP moves to an open source model in response.
   • The J2EE value proposition continues to struggle as people find cheaper and faster ways to build out middle tiers.
   • In-container testing becomes a priority - a tester role is added to the J2EE spec.
   • Regular expressions, nio, assertions, aspects and generics breath life into Java projects.
   • Java increasingly becomes a target language for little languages.
2. Web, Web Services:
   • Versioning becomes the other hardest problem in webservices, along with security.
   • People start to become openly frustrated with using SOAP XML documents as message envelopes.
   • REST goes mainstream, under the guise of the 'doc/lit' style- RPC becomes a failed model for integrating over public networks.
   • Reliable messaging becomes a stick to beat HTTP with.
   • The Weblog supplants the homepage as the way everyone provides a web presence. ISPs offer weblogs in their packages.
   • How information flows through weblogs and the graph characteristics of community weblogs receives great attention.
   • People start talking about using something called performatives in conjunction with doc/lit style services.
3. Semantic Web:
   • Ontologies are not as useful and more difficult to design than first expected; the upfront costs of creation become a concern.
   • Specialized metadata formats continue to be favoured over RDF.
   • RDF is used for systems integration.
   • Machine learning comes to the semantic web.
4. Agile methods:
   • Agile methods, test first and refactoring will all go mainstream, as clients and corporate in-house teams realize it's cheaper and more effective to have systems built that way...
   • ... and webservices based integrations and tighter margins from fixed price contracts coerces software houses and consultancies to move away from traditional project management approaches, as the business models built around them become untenable.
   • US and European software houses declare agile methods a compettitive weapon (largely against outsourced Indian and Asian development).
   • Pair programming gets (quitely) de-emphasized in XP - solo coding on the job becomes ok.
5. Wireless:
   • Mobile games will not be as big as people think...
   • ...although a market will appear to provide multiplayer infrastructure.
   • Wireless and weblogs continue to synthesize in interesting ways.
6. XML:
   • Users of of W3C Schema make all the same mistakes OO users did 10 years ago.
   • XSLT/XPath are forked.
   • W3C Schema is subsetted.
   • Use of entity references for characters becomes an antipattern.
   • Digitally signed XML becomes prevelant.
   • Pipeline processing goes mainstream - performance worries slow adoption.
   • A binary XML note reaches the W3C and a working group is formed.
   • Ant and RSS become far and away the most popular XML languages.
   • DTDs remain relevant.
7. Finally, Lisp continues to be the Latin of computing.

Opening quote for the year: If you don't like change, you'll like being irrelevant even less.

January 1, 2003 08:01 PM

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» Bill de hÓra's "Predictions for 2003" from TheArchitect.co.uk - Jorgen Thelin's weblog
Bill de hÓra makes some interesting technical Predictions for 2003 The ones about Web Services and XML strike a particular cord with me, and especially these: Versioning becomes the other hardest problem in webservices, along with security. W3C Sc... [Read More]

Tracked on January 7, 2003 10:35 AM